China’s Premier Wen Jiabao

Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, is trying to prevent a deceleration in economic growth from worsening.
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, is trying to prevent a deceleration in economic growth from worsening. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg

May 15 (Bloomberg) — Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, talks about China’s economic growth outlook and its central bank monetary policy.
Foreign direct investment in China fell for sixth month in April, dropping 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $8.4 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in Beijing. Zhang speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

May 14 (Bloomberg) — Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and central bank monetary policy.
Kowalczyk also discusses the debt crisis in Europe with Susan Li, John Dawson, Mia Saini and David Ingles on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Foreign direct investment in China
fell for a sixth month in April, the longest stretch of declines
since the global financial crisis, amid renewed turmoil in
financial markets.
Inbound investment dropped 0.7 percent from a year earlier
to $8.4 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in Beijing.
That compares with a 6.1 percent drop in March.
Today’s data underscore the risk of a deeper slowdown in
China after April export and import gains missed estimates and
industrial output growth was the slowest since 2009. China cut
banks’ reserve requirements on May 12 to spur lending and arrest
the deterioration, with UBS AG and Bank of America Corp.
lowering their second-quarter and full-year growth estimates.
“Trade data was bad, production data last week was bad,
and this time FDI is also pointing to the same direction,”
Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist with Nomura Holdings Inc. in
Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. The
reports show a “very weak economy at this moment,” with
chances of an interest-rate cut rising though “still below 50
percent,” Zhang said.
The yuan fell against the dollar for the seventh time in
eight days, slipping 0.02 percent to 6.3225 as of 12:46 p.m. in
Shanghai. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks dropped 0.9
percent at 1:31 p.m. in Tokyo.
The estimates of five analysts in a Bloomberg News survey
on foreign investment ranged from a gain of 8.2 percent to a
drop of 3 percent.
Cumulative Decline
Foreign direct investment in the first four months fell 2.4
percent from a year earlier to $37.9 billion after a previously
reported 2.8 percent decline in the first quarter and a 26
percent jump a year ago. FDI rose 9.7 percent in 2011 to $116
billion, according to Commerce Ministry data.
Commerce Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said today that
authorities are “prudently optimistic” about the outlook for
foreign investment, which has dropped partly because of the
lackluster global economy. He said he’s “neither optimistic nor
pessimistic” on trade.
A post-election impasse in Greece added to signs of stress
in European markets yesterday as the euro fell for the 10th time
in 11 days and stocks surrendered a two-day gain.
FDI from the European Union in the first four months of
2012 slumped 27.9 percent to $1.9 billion from a year earlier,
the ministry said today, while investment from the U.S. rose 1.9
percent to $1.05 billion.
“The negative trend reflects concerns over China’s lower
growth potential” as well as the global economic outlook and
weaker access to funding, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior
economist and strategist with Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
The risk is increasing of China failing to meet its 2012 growth
target, while odds of further monetary and fiscal easing are
also rising, Kowalczyk said in a note today.
Pimco Forecast
Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees the
world’s largest bond fund, sees Chinese growth this year in the
“mid-7 percent range,” according to Ramin Toloui, global co-
head of emerging markets portfolio management in Singapore.
“The economy is unlikely to bottom until the third quarter,”
Toloui said in e-mailed comments on May 13.
Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest construction- and
mining-equipment maker, said last month its first-quarter sales
in China fell by a range of $250 million to $300 million. It had
17 facilities in the nation with nine more under construction,
according to a March statement.
The economy is “in a bit of a cyclical low right now,”
Michael DeWalt, head of investor relations for the Peoria,
Illinois-based company, said at a Wells Fargo Co. conference
on May 10, according to a transcript of his comments.
Fifth Straight Slowdown
China’s economy expanded 8.1 percent in the first quarter
from a year earlier, the fifth straight slowdown and the least
in almost three years.
UBS, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase
Co. are among banks that cut expansion estimates after data last
week showed industrial output rose the least since May 2009, new
loans missed estimates and import growth stalled.
Wang Tao at UBS reduced her second-quarter forecast to 8
percent from 8.4 percent and her full-year estimate to 8.2
percent from 8.5 percent. Citigroup economists led by Ding
Shuang and Shen Minggao lowered their projection for the three
months ending June to 7.5 percent from 7.9 percent and their
2012 estimate to 8.1 percent from 8.4 percent.
The cut in banks’ reserve-requirement ratio by the People’s
Bank of China was the third in six months.
Australia Interest Rate
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, minutes of the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 1 meeting showed the central
bank made its deepest interest-rate cut in three years to help
revive below-average growth, counter rising mortgage costs and
shore up
consumer confidence.
Singapore’s March retail sales grew 9.1 percent from a year
earlier, more than economists estimated, compared with a revised
20.1 percent in February.
First-quarter gross domestic product in the euro area
probably contracted 0.2 percent from a year earlier, according
to a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a preliminary estimate today.
Germany’s economy may have expanded 0.1 percent in the first
quarter from the prior period, while Italy’s shrank 0.7 percent,
separate surveys showed.
Sales at U.S. retailers probably slowed in April, an
economist survey indicated, as weather turned unseasonably mild
and consumers took a breather following pre-Easter holiday
shopping.
The U.S. consumer-price index was little changed in April
compared with March after climbing 0.3 percent the prior month,
according to the survey median before a Labor Department report.
Companies still plan to expand in China, the world’s most
populous nation, as more people move to cities and higher wages
give consumers more spending power.
GM Expansion
General Motors Co. has said it will open 600 dealerships in
China this year and its local car-making venture last month
signed an agreement to build a fourth plant, part of a push to
meet demand in inland regions in the world’s largest auto market.
China is the company’s “biggest growth opportunity,” and
sales are accelerating in second-, third- and fourth-tier cities,
Fabrizio Freda, chief executive officer of Estee Lauder Cos.,
the maker of Clinique skin-care products, said in an earnings
call on May 4.
–Victoria Ruan. With assistance from Ailing Tan in Singapore,
Zheng Lifei in Beijing, Rina Chandran in Singapore and John Dawson in Hong Kong. Editors: Nerys Avery, Scott Lanman
To contact Bloomberg News staff on this story:
Victoria Ruan in Beijing at
vruan1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Panckhurst in Hong Kong at
ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
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